Determinants of civil war and excess zeroes

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Show simple item record Dunne, John Paul Tian, Nan 2016-09-29T15:03:39Z 2016-09-29T15:03:39Z 2016-09
dc.identifier.citation Dunne, JP., Tian, N., (2016). Determinants of Civil War and Excess Zeroes. A Southern Africa Labour and Development Research Unit Working Paper Number 191. Cape Town: SALDRU, University of Cape Town
dc.identifier.isbn 978-1-928281-52-8
dc.description.abstract This paper considers the determinants of civil conflict, using a zero-inflated modelling approach that deals with the problem of excess zero observations, which we argue are related to two distinct data generation processes. Despite their continued use in the literature, traditional probit and logit models have limited capacity in dealing with this issue and can create misleading results. This is illustrated by estimating the model in Elbadawi and Sambanis (2002) using their data and a zero-inflated modelling procedure, which leads to results that suggest a role for the grievance variables in contrast to the original article. A general greed-grievance model is then estimated on a sample of 134 countries, over 54 years. Again, while the standard probit model results tend to emphasise opportunity variables, as found in other studies, the zero-inflated model gives more support for grievance effects. In particular, polity, ethnicity and inequality are found to play a significant role in contrast to earlier studies. en_US
dc.language.iso en en_US
dc.relation.ispartofseries Saldru Working Paper;191
dc.subject Civil war en_US
dc.subject Zero-inflation en_US
dc.subject Greed en_US
dc.subject Grievance en_US
dc.title Determinants of civil war and excess zeroes en_US
dc.type Working Paper en_US

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